A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. After the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has put together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they will encounter in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
